Tiankang Bio (002100) tracking report: Where does the company ‘s high certainty come from?
The company’s pig breeding layout is mainly Xinjiang, and it gradually 深圳桑拿网 expands to Henan and Gansu. The location advantage is obvious, and the deterministic displacement of the slaughter is expected. It is estimated that 840,000 / 1.8 million / 2.5 million / 3.5 million slaughter will be achieved in 19/20/21/22.
We use a step-by-step estimation method to give the company a 5x estimate for the pig business in 2019, a 40x estimate for the vaccine, a 10x increase in the feed and agricultural products business, and a target market value of 22.
The regional advantage itself is internally repaired, and the company’s non-blast prevention and control advantage leads the industry.
We believe that the company’s non-blast prevention and control advantages mainly come from two major aspects: 1) Obvious regional advantages.
Xinjiang’s dry, high-temperature climate is not conducive to 杭州桑拿 the survival of non-blast virus, while low breeding density and one-way flow of pigs are not conducive to the spread of non-blast virus.
2) Your own advantages.
Tiankang Bio is a company that develops the entire industry chain. The feed and crude drug business helps the company to prevent non-disease, and the integrated closed-loop business model minimizes the company’s contact with the outside world and reduces the risk of pig infection.
There are abundant breeding pig resources, the pens are gradually expanded, and the pens are expected to grow rapidly.
The company’s breeding model is mainly self-propagating and self-supporting. Currently it has 5,000-6,000 purebred pig resources. Since Q2 2019, the number of sows can be expanded steadily.
Forecasting the increasing construction in progress and fixed assets, we predict that the company is expected to achieve 1.5 to 2 million listing plans in 2020.
In the medium and long term, the company’s pig farming is centered around the “3 + 1” layout, which is full of growth.
The cost advantage is leading, and the company gradually enters the performance redemption period.
We estimate that the company’s Xinjiang regional aquaculture complete cost is about 12-12.
5 yuan / kg, the company’s cost is much lower than the industry’s main feed costs (quality and cheap corn in Xinjiang), breeding (mostly binary sows, PSY 25 or more), and non-blast prevention and control advantages (the impact of the epidemic is small, Low death rate).
In the third quarter, the average profit of the company’s pig breeding heads exceeded 800 yuan, ranking first among the listed companies, and the average price gradually improved, and the weight remained stable, which pushed the bottom out.
With the rapid rise of pig prices in December, we predict that the company will gradually enter into the performance redemption period.
The recovery of production capacity is slow, and the ultra-long pig cycle verifies the comprehensive ability of the enterprise.
In this round of non-plague cases, we predict that the industry ‘s production capacity has been reduced by more than 40%. Since October, although the fertile sows announced by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs have improved from the previous month, under the repeated epidemic in winter, we predict that the recovery of production capacity will continueSlower, the industry will enter the ultra-long pig cycle.
As the country’s live pigs gradually shift from pigs to meat, the barriers to entry for the industry are expected to increase again.
We expect that the major groups that are expected to resume production in the big group will have the advantages of breeding pig resources, financial strength, non-blast prevention and control advantages, and the advantages of the entire industry chain.
Risk factors: The non-plague epidemic is further intensified, and the column is less than expected.
Investment suggestion: The layout of pig farming is mainly Xinjiang, and it will gradually expand to Henan and Gansu. The location advantage is obvious, and the deterministic replacement will be achieved. It is estimated that 840,000 / 1.8 million / 2.5 million / 3.5 million will be realized in 19/20/21/22.
We adopt a step-by-step estimation method, giving the company a 5x estimate for the pig business in 2019, a 40x estimate for the vaccine, and a 10x increase in the feed and agricultural products business. We maintain the previous profit forecast and rating, and have a target market value of 22.5 billion.